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Latest News
Pound boosted by Covid-19 vaccine news and Brexit hopes
The Pound has driven higher following some positive covid-19 vaccine news and renewed hopes of a Brexit deal.
Risk assets have been soaring after reports that a coronavirus vaccine being developed by Pfizer has a 90% effectiveness rate against the virus. There are still challenges ahead regarding this new vaccine, however. For example, the logistics of how it will be mass-produced and distributed at the extremely low temperatures required for it to be effective.
Nevertheless, the markets are very excited by these positive results. There’s a good chance the vaccine will be available to some before the end of this year, with more widespread inoculations available next year.
An effective vaccine against Covid-19 has generally been viewed as the only real way of bringing the world back to normality after months of lockdowns and huge amounts of deaths. Therefore, stock markets and ‘risk’ currencies have risen heavily off the back of this announcement.
In other news, the Pound has also been supported by positive Brexit comments from Rishi Sunak and Boris Johnson, both stating that talks were making progress and they expect a deal with the EU. Furthermore, the House of Lords once again rejected the controversial Internal Market Bill yesterday which also makes a deal more likely with the EU. Finally, some better-than-expected UK employment and wage figures out this morning has also lifted the Pound.
As a result, the GBP/USD has pushed up around 1% from yesterday’s low and trades at a fresh 2-month high. The GBP/EUR has risen around 1.5% from yesterday’s low and also sits at a 2-month high.
Pound rises after hawkish BoE comments and vaccine rollout
The Pound has moved higher following the Bank of England's apparent reluctance to set negative interest rates and a positive start to the UK vaccine rollout.
The BoE’s Governor, Andrew Bailey, commented yesterday that it was unlikely the interest rate would be cut to 0% or below in coming weeks, as he anticipated an economic recovery was now on the cards. Lowering interest rates typically make a currency less attractive as it reduces investment yields, therefore these comments have helped to support Sterling.
The Pound was also boosted as the UK’s vaccine campaign accelerates well ahead of Europe and the US. Nearly 2.1 million vaccines have been administered so far, currently more than the continental European countries combined. A target has been set to vaccinate 15 million of the most vulnerable by mid-February to ease pressure on health services.
These figures put the UK in very good stead and the development could prove beneficial for Sterling. It will ultimately determine when the UK economy is able to recover, influencing the BoE’s decisions on interest rates and quantitative easing. Investors will also pay close attention to the daily tally to gauge whether the target will be reached, with countries being seen to exit the health crisis first expected to be rewarded by foreign exchange investors in the medium to long term.
The US Dollar has lost footing once again amidst a slower start to vaccine rollout, continued political tension and a ten-year treasury auction in the US which triggered falling bond yields. The House of Representatives may impeach President Donald Trump for incitement of insurrection after Vice-President Mike Pence rejected calls to use the 25th Amendment to remove Trump from office. Concerns about violence surrounding Joe Biden’s inauguration are heightened, but markets are placing their focus on the incoming administration's economic priorities versus the outgoing one.
As a result, the GBP/USD has moved up 1.2% from yesterday’s low and traded close to the highest levels we’ve seen since May 2018 before meeting resistance. The GBP/EUR has edged higher through yesterday and this morning, gaining 1-cent and earning a 6-week high.
Happy new year!
2020 was a volatile year in the markets and with Brexit and Trump now (almost) out of the door, will 2021 be calmer?
Brexit deal done but Covid crisis undermines Pound:
The Pound ended the year on relatively firm footing after the successful passage of a Brexit deal through Parliament. However, the rise in Sterling following the announcement of a deal was not as dramatic as some market participants had expected. This is likely down to a ‘buy the rumour, sell the fact’ move, as a deal was generally expected.
In addition, the Coronavirus pandemic looks set to continue being a key driver of Sterling over the next few months. New record levels of Covid-19 cases in the UK and the resulting restrictions have been putting a dampener on Sterling, which further explains the lacklustre response following the Brexit deal.
The UK economy has been plagued by years of uncertainty over Brexit and there's now hope that major inward investment plans for the UK will come to life after previously being put on hold. Sterling derives a lot of its value from inward investment flows, so this could see a boost of the Pound if the floodgates open. It now looks likely that traders will move on from the spontaneous Brexit reactions caused from comments by UK/EU officials. Instead, they will try and ascertain the longer-term impacts of Brexit by tracking the economic performance of the UK after leaving the EU and once we emerge from the Covid crisis.
Pound traders will be closely watching the Bank of England’s response to the rising Covid-19 infections and the impact this is having on the UK's economic outlook. Although they’ve generally shied away from talk of negative interest rates, the market is now expecting the BoE to set negative rates by May 2021. Sterling is likely to move depending on comments from BoE officials and how long the new tighter Covid restrictions last in the UK. Furthermore, how quickly the UK Government can roll out the new vaccines which are being heavily relied upon for a return to normality. A faster UK roll-out versus our international peers would give Sterling an advantage.
Trump on way out but Dollar remains on backfoot:
The US Dollar has started the year how it ended 2020: remaining firmly on the backfoot. Expectations the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates lower for longer, the increasing likelihood of further US Covid relief funding and broader improving global market risk sentiment has turned traders away from the ‘safe haven’ Dollar. However, we are far from out of the woods with this pandemic and therefore risk sentiment can quickly change.
With Trump exiting the White House this month and Biden taking charge, the markets are closely watching the results of tomorrow’s runoff Senate elections in Georgia to see if the Democrats can gain control of the Senate. Without victory, Biden would find it a challenge to pass major reforms. However, a victory here would likely lead to increased Dollar weakness as stimulus would be even more generous.
As a result, the GBP/USD hit fresh highs from May 2018 this morning. The GBP/EUR is down around 1-cent from New Year’s Eve but trades toward the higher end of where it’s been over the past 4-weeks. The EUR/USD continues to trade higher having hit fresh highs from April 2018, with the market touching 1.23.
Hopefully by the end of 2021, the world will return to normal after the pandemic and the impact the virus has on currencies will disappear. For now though, and particularly the next few months, the virus is likely to take centre-stage, which means volatility levels should remain high. As we move through the year and the restrictions (hopefully) subside, the economic data coming out of the different nations will come further to the fore as analysts begin to more accurately calculate the true impact.
The Pound has tumbled this morning after the UK government announced new restrictions to reduce the spread of a new Coronavirus strain.
Following a spate of new cases in London and the South East of England, Boris Johnson announced new Tier 4 restrictions for millions and reversed plans to loosen restrictions over the Christmas period.
Although there is no evidence this mutation is more deadly, or resistant to the new vaccines, governments across Europe are not taking any chances. They have severed transport ties with the UK in a bid to prevent the spread of the new virus strain, which is believed to be 70% more transmissible. Boris Johnson is calling together his Cobra Cabinet for an emergency meeting following rising concerns that British supply chains will be hit hard.
With only ten days to go until the end of the Brexit transition period, negotiators have failed to reach an agreement over the weekend, reaching stalemate over EU demands on fisheries. The UK are insisting the EU needs to budge on their stance, but we have seen no further progress. Having missed another ‘deadline’ set by the European Parliament (Sunday), it appears that talks will go down to wire and this is creating some concern in the market, adding to Sterling woes today. However, a deal still seems the most likely option, with fisheries always expected to be sticking point given political sensitivities.
As a result, the GBP/USD has fallen around 2% from Friday’s high and trades at a one week low. The GBP/EUR has lost around 2-cents from Friday and now trades at a 10-day low.
Sterling buoyed by "good progress" in Brexit talks
Sterling has moved higher today following reports of positive developments in Brexit trade talks.
Earlier, Michel Barnier stated that “good progress” had been made in the talks and that only the “last stumbling blocks” remained in the way of an agreement. It seems substantial progress has been made on the key level-playing field issue after Boris Johnson allowed an alignment mechanism with EU rules. The politically sensitive fisheries issue now appears to be the main focus of these last ditch talks and an agreement looks more likely to be reached over the next few days (potentially by Sunday). This has supported the Pound today and also increased market risk appetite.
In other news, the USD has continued to weaken after the Federal Reserve said it would continue to keep channelling cash into financial markets until the US recovery looks fully in hand. Furthermore, the chances of agreement on a $900 billion US stimulus package and a post-Brexit trade deal have both risen, which has further boosted market risk appetite and therefore reduced the appeal of safe-haven currencies, such as the US dollar.
As a result, the GBP/USD rate has hit a fresh 2.5 year high today having gained nearly another 1% today. The GBP/EUR has also clawed back some ground and touched the top of the range we’ve seen in December. The EUR/USD has continued its push higher and now trades over 1.22. Attention will continue to focus on Brexit developments and whether there are any last minute political dramas to try and appease their domestic audiences.
Sterling bounces back after Brexit talks are extended
The Pound has bounced back overnight from Friday’s lows after Britain and the European Union agreed yesterday to “go the extra mile” and extend Brexit talks.
Boris Johnson and the European Commission President, Ursula von der Leyen, had originally set yesterday as the deadline for Brexit negotiators to break the impasse in their discussions. Whilst the two sides remain deadlocked over key sticking points, neither party wants to walk away yet and this has boosted optimism around the chances of a deal. Although another self-imposed deadline has been extended without resolution, both sides are under pressure to reach a deal by 31st December and The Times reported today that progress has been made on the level playing field topic.
In other news, Covid-19 continues to spread heavily in the US with new average cases, deaths and hospitalisations hitting new records. The USA approved the Pfizer vaccine on Friday and their vaccination programme will start today which should help support market risk sentiment. Covid cases in the UK are looking more stable, however there’s concern of a large rise in cases in London which may need to enter Tier 3 restrictions this week.
As a result, the GBP/USD has bounced back over 2.5 cents from Friday’s low and trades back to the levels we saw last Wednesday. The GBP/EUR has recovered over 1.5% from Friday’s low but remains relatively subdued due to ongoing Euro strength, with the EUR/USD remaining well above 1.21.
Markets will continue to closely track Brexit developments this week which should keep the Pound volatile. Later in the week, final interest rate-setting meetings of the year will take place for the US Federal Reserve and Bank of England, but no major changes are expected to be made at this stage.
Sterling loses ground as Brexit deal hangs in the balance
Sterling has lost some ground overnight after a dinner meeting between Boris Johnson and the European Commission President failed to make a Brexit deal breakthrough.
Downing Street have said that “very large gaps remain”, however the two leaders agreed that talks should continue over the coming days and “that by Sunday a firm decision should be taken about the future of the talks”. If progress is made ahead of Sunday, the talks are expected to continue into next week. It has been reported this morning that the EU could still ratify a deal before the end of the year if agreed by the 18th December.
The lack of progress for a deal with such little time left has taken a bit of an edge off the Pound, although the FX market remains relatively unphased. Many analysts still believe that a thin trade deal is the most likely outcome. Certainly some Sterling traders’ nerves are being tested more heavily as the talks go down to the wire.
EU leaders are meeting today and tomorrow but Brexit is not expected to be a large part of their discussions. The focus will instead be upon handling the Covid crisis and gaining approval of a huge stimulus package ($2.2 trillion). Euro traders will be closely watching to see if they approve the package, which will support the worst Covid-affected economies within the Bloc.
As a result, the Pound has lost around 1-cent against both the Euro and USD. The EUR/USD continues to trade at high levels and around the 1.21 mark. Traders’ eyes will turn to this afternoon’s ECB interest rate meeting where they’re expected to increase monetary stimulus but they will also be listening out for potential comments on the strength of the Euro.
Pound down as weekend Brexit talks make no progress
Sterling has lost ground this morning after Brexit negotiators failed to make any significant progress over the weekend.
EU chief negotiator, Michel Barnier, said he was “rather downbeat as to the prospects of agreement” and the Sun reported this morning that Boris was ready to pull out of talks “within hours”. This lack of progress has led to some analysts increasing their odds of a no deal outcome, but generally most still feel a deal is the most likely outcome. For example, JP Morgan have now revised their odds of a no deal from 20% up the 33%.
Talks are reported to continue today, with Boris Johnson and the European Commission president expected to review the situation this evening. If successful, then negotiations are likely to continue over Tuesday and Wednesday before EU leaders convene virtually at the European Council meeting on Thursday/Friday. At this point we could see a new final offer being made to the UK.
As a result, the Pound is down around 1% against most of its peers this morning. The market is expecting increased volatility in the Pound this week as Brexit talks near a conclusion and with the transition period finishing in just 24-days’ time.
Pound choppy amidst vaccine progress and Brexit concerns
The Pound has been whipped around by positive Covid-19 vaccine progress and conflicting Brexit reports.
The UK medical regulator has confirmed the covid-19 vaccine from Pfizer - which is 95% effective – is safe to use and therefore will be rolled out in the UK from next week with higher-risk individuals being vaccinated first. This means the UK will be the first country in the world to begin mass Covid-19 vaccinations, which should speed up the UK’s return to normal ahead of its peers and has therefore boosted Sterling.
The Pound had already moved higher overnight, hitting a 3-mth high against the Dollar, following a report from Times Radio that Brexit negotiations had reached the ‘tunnel stage’, which is an expected sign a deal would be struck. However, Sterling has been sent lower this morning after the EU’s chief negotiator cast doubt on the progress of the talks. Michel Barnier told 27 national envoys to Brussels that a deal “hangs in the balance” with differences still remaining on the same key issues (fisheries, governance and level playing field). It remains to be seen, however, how much of this is just some form of political theatre and how much is reality. The market has been heavily pricing a deal into the Pound and therefore it’s not a surprise Sterling would fall slightly on this negative headline. It seems likely we’ll get some further news on Brexit progress (or not) towards the end of this week and negotiations may even continue over the weekend. Watch this space.
In other news, the appeal of safe-haven assets, such as the US dollar, has waned as investors’ risk appetites return. Investors have been given a reason to be optimistic due to hints of more stimulus from the Federal Reserve, signs of progress towards more fiscal stimulus in the US, suppressions in Covid case numbers across Europe and positive vaccine news. It remains to be seen, however, how long-lasting the impacts of this pandemic will be on the major world economies and the impact of the more recent lockdowns.
As a result, the GBP/USD has lost a cent from the 3-mth highs seen overnight. The GBP/EUR is down 1-cent from yesterday’s high and now trades at a 3-week low. The EUR/USD is flying high, having broken the 1.20 level overnight, and trades at the highest levels since April 2018.
Pound boosted by Covid-19 vaccine news and Brexit hopes
The Pound has driven higher following some positive covid-19 vaccine news and renewed hopes of a Brexit deal.
Risk assets have been soaring after reports that a coronavirus vaccine being developed by Pfizer has a 90% effectiveness rate against the virus. There are still challenges ahead regarding this new vaccine, however. For example, the logistics of how it will be mass-produced and distributed at the extremely low temperatures required for it to be effective.
Nevertheless, the markets are very excited by these positive results. There’s a good chance the vaccine will be available to some before the end of this year, with more widespread inoculations available next year.
An effective vaccine against Covid-19 has generally been viewed as the only real way of bringing the world back to normality after months of lockdowns and huge amounts of deaths. Therefore, stock markets and ‘risk’ currencies have risen heavily off the back of this announcement.
In other news, the Pound has also been supported by positive Brexit comments from Rishi Sunak and Boris Johnson, both stating that talks were making progress and they expect a deal with the EU. Furthermore, the House of Lords once again rejected the controversial Internal Market Bill yesterday which also makes a deal more likely with the EU. Finally, some better-than-expected UK employment and wage figures out this morning has also lifted the Pound.
As a result, the GBP/USD has pushed up around 1% from yesterday’s low and trades at a fresh 2-month high. The GBP/EUR has risen around 1.5% from yesterday’s low and also sits at a 2-month high.
Pound rises after hawkish BoE comments and vaccine rollout
The Pound has moved higher following the Bank of England's apparent reluctance to set negative interest rates and a positive start to the UK vaccine rollout.
The BoE’s Governor, Andrew Bailey, commented yesterday that it was unlikely the interest rate would be cut to 0% or below in coming weeks, as he anticipated an economic recovery was now on the cards. Lowering interest rates typically make a currency less attractive as it reduces investment yields, therefore these comments have helped to support Sterling.
The Pound was also boosted as the UK’s vaccine campaign accelerates well ahead of Europe and the US. Nearly 2.1 million vaccines have been administered so far, currently more than the continental European countries combined. A target has been set to vaccinate 15 million of the most vulnerable by mid-February to ease pressure on health services.
These figures put the UK in very good stead and the development could prove beneficial for Sterling. It will ultimately determine when the UK economy is able to recover, influencing the BoE’s decisions on interest rates and quantitative easing. Investors will also pay close attention to the daily tally to gauge whether the target will be reached, with countries being seen to exit the health crisis first expected to be rewarded by foreign exchange investors in the medium to long term.
The US Dollar has lost footing once again amidst a slower start to vaccine rollout, continued political tension and a ten-year treasury auction in the US which triggered falling bond yields. The House of Representatives may impeach President Donald Trump for incitement of insurrection after Vice-President Mike Pence rejected calls to use the 25th Amendment to remove Trump from office. Concerns about violence surrounding Joe Biden’s inauguration are heightened, but markets are placing their focus on the incoming administration's economic priorities versus the outgoing one.
As a result, the GBP/USD has moved up 1.2% from yesterday’s low and traded close to the highest levels we’ve seen since May 2018 before meeting resistance. The GBP/EUR has edged higher through yesterday and this morning, gaining 1-cent and earning a 6-week high.
